Hart Real Estate Academy Fills Void Left by OREA College

The Hart Real Estate Academy has officially launched with the mandate of helping new and existing real estate professionals satisfy their educational and professional requirements, thereby raising the bar in Ontario.

The academy will provide interactive in-class sessions both face-to-face and online as REALTORS® learn the business and partake in pre-registration and articling courses, ensuring a higher calibre of graduate.

Effective, July 1st, 2018, The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) is no longer offering in-class learning sessions for many of its registrant and articling courses through OREA Real Estate College. Students will only be able to take these courses via correspondence or online self-study, with no interactive instructor and peer component.

Surina Hart, Gino Schincariol and Lorne Andrews, certified real estate instructors and industry professionals, spearheaded Hart Real Estate Academy in response to OREA’s decision to ensure class sessions are available for students who prefer to learn in an interactive live or online setting.

“Hart Real Estate Academy classes are designed to provide students with useful content to ensure that the material is not only covered to enable a passing grade on the exam, but also to provide practical information to enhance participants’ real estate skills,” Andrews explains.

“We’re educators who are making a difference in the lives of real estate sales professionals, brokerages, buyers and sellers,” says Hart. “We believe in helping students acquire the knowledge, skills and resources they need for the future, now – so they save money and time – and, most important, are well equipped to overcome the challenges often presented within the earlier months of their careers.”

Classes offered by Hart Real Estate Academy are facilitated by certified real estate instructors and industry professionals, with the face-to-face sessions being held at York University’s Aviva Tennis Centre.

“There has been a lot of discussion in the real estate industry about the need for increased educational requirements and more practical training to effectively raise the professional bar in our industry, and I believe that the Hart Academy has timed its entry into the market perfectly,” states Don Kottick, Past President of the Real Estate Institute of Canada (REIC) and a Director with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). “I’m confident that graduates of the Hart Academy will enter the market better equipped for success and work to a higher standard of professionalism – just what the industry needs.”

For more information, please contact:

Hart Real Estate Academy
1-877-404-8307 | info@hartrealestateacademy.com

www.hartrealestateacademy.com
www.facebook.com/hartrealestateacademy

Canadian home sales down from December to January

housing prices rise

housing prices riseAccording to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were down slightly in January 2017 on a month-over-month basis.

Highlights:

  • National home sales declined 1.3% from December 2016 to January 2017.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in January was up 1.9% from a year earlier.
  • The number of newly listed homes dropped 6.7% from December 2016 to January 2017.
  • The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) in January was up 15.0% year-over-year (y-o-y).
  • The national average sale price was little changed (+0.2%) y-o-y in January.

Home sales over Canadian MLS Systems edged down by 1.3% month-over-month in January 2017, putting them at the second lowest monthly level since the fall of 2015 and only slightly above levels recorded last November when recently tightened mortgage regulations came into effect.

Sales activity was down from the previous month in about half of all local markets, led by three of Canada’s largest urban centres: the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Greater Vancouver and Montreal.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 1.9% compared to the same month last year. While sales were up from year-ago levels in about two-thirds of all local housing markets including in the GTA, Calgary, Edmonton, London and St Thomas, and Montreal, they were down significantly in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.

“Canadian homebuyers face some challenges this year, including new mortgage rules that make it harder to qualify for a mortgage and regulatory changes that will push up mortgage financing costs,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “It will take some time to gauge the extent to which these challenges will weigh on home buyers in different housing markets across Canada. All real estate is local, and realtors remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“The shortage of homes available for sale has become more severe in some cities, particularly in and around Toronto and in parts of BC,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Unless sales activity drops dramatically, the outlook for home prices remains strong in places that face a continuing supply shortage.”

The number of newly listed homes dropped 6.7% in January 2017, the second consecutive monthly decline. New listings were down in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by the GTA and environs across Vancouver Island.

With the monthly decline in new listings surpassing the decline in sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio jumped to 67.7% in January compared to 64.0% in December and 60.2% in November.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60% in about half of all local housing markets in January, the vast majority of which are located in British Columbia, in and around the GTA and across southwestern Ontario. A monthly decline in newly listed homes further tightened housing markets that were already in sellers’ market territory.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2017 – unchanged from December 2016 and a six-year low for the measure.

The imbalance between limited housing supply and robust demand in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region is without precedent (the region includes the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, the Niagara Region, Barrie and nearby cottage country). The number of months of inventory in January 2017 stood at or below one month in the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford and Guelph.

The MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) now includes Oakville-Milton and Guelph, and has been historically revised to ensure that all aggregate measures remain comparable.

The Aggregate Composite MLS HPI rose by 15.0% y-o-y in January 2017. This was up slightly from December’s gain, reflecting an acceleration in apartment and townhouse/row unit price increases.

Prices for two-storey single family homes posted the strongest year-over-year gains (+16.8%), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+15.8%), one-storey single family homes (+14.4%) and apartment units (+13.3%).

While benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in 10 of 13 housing markets tracked by the MLS HPI, price trends continued to vary widely by location.

In the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver, prices have receded from their peaks posted in August 2016. That said, home prices in these regions nonetheless remain well above year-ago levels (+24.9% and +15.6% respectively).

Meanwhile, benchmark prices continue to climb in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island together with Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton and Guelph. Year-over-year price gains in these five markets ranged from about 18% to 26% in January.

By comparison, home prices were down 2.9% y-o-y in Calgary and by 1.0% y-o-y in Saskatoon. Prices in these two markets now stand 5.9% and 4.3% below their respective peaks reached in 2015.

Home prices were up modestly from year-ago levels in Regina (+3.8%), Ottawa (+3.7%) and Greater Montreal (+3.1%). In Greater Moncton, home prices for the market overall held steady (-0.2%), reflecting an increase in townhouse row units prices (5.8%) that was offset by a decline in prices for one-storey single family homes (-1.0%).

The MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2017 was $470,253, almost unchanged (+0.2%) from where it stood one year earlier.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets.

That said, Greater Vancouver’s share of national sales activity has diminished considerably over the past year, giving it less upward influence on the national average price. The average price is reduced by almost $120,000 to $351,998 if Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto sales are excluded from calculations.

Source: CREA

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 realtors working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast June 2016

Canadian Real Estate Association

Canadian Real Estate AssociationThe Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2016 and 2017.

Canadian resale housing market trends that defined 2015 have intensified. National sales activity and average prices reached new heights in the first half of 2016 amid a growing supply shortage of single family homes in British Columbia and Ontario, particularly in B.C.’s Lower Mainland as well as in and around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

Price gains in these regions stand in contrast to declines in provinces where economic and housing market prospects are closely tied to the outlook for the oil patch and other natural resource industries. Elsewhere, home prices are growing modestly, such as in Ottawa or Montreal.

Activity should begin to rebalance away from B.C. and Ontario, as supply shortages put upward pressure on home prices and constrain transactions even as housing demand remains strong in these provinces and interest rates remain low. Accordingly, sales activity over the second half of the year is expected to ease in B.C., Ontario and on a national basis.

Sales in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador are expected to struggle to regain traction this year, resulting in continuing softness for home prices. In most other provinces, home sales activity and average prices should improve as their economies strengthen and interest rates remain low.

Nationally, sales activity is forecast to rise by 6.1 per cent to 536,400 units in 2016. This would represent a new annual record, but remain below the peak reached in the 2007 after adjusting for population growth.

British Columbia is forecast to post the largest annual increase in activity (+20.0 per cent) this year, while Alberta is expected the record the largest annual decline in activity (-11.5 per cent). Although housing demand remains strong among many housing markets in Ontario, a lack of supply is projected to constrain the increase in sales activity (+5.2 per cent) this year.

Elsewhere, sales are forecast to rise in Manitoba (+7.1 per cent), Quebec (+5.1 per cent) and Nova Scotia (+5.8 per cent), reflecting anticipated economic improvements in these provinces. In New Brunswick, strong home sales toward the end of last year and a weak start to 2016 is projected to result in a small annual decline in activity this year despite an anticipated improvement in its economic prospects.

In Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador, where housing market prospects are tied to the outlook for natural resource prices, annual sales activity is forecast to ease by four per cent and one per cent respectively this year.

Prices have continued to push higher in British Columbia and Ontario and sales in these expensive real estate markets have recently hit record highs. Accordingly, CREA’s forecast for the national average price has been revised upward to $490,700 in 2016, representing an annual increase of 10.8 per cent.

Highlighting how provincial sales activity affects the national average price, British Columbia is the only province where the average home price is forecast to climb faster (+13.5 per cent) than the national average in 2016. Ontario’s average price is forecast to rise roughly in line with the national increase.

Elsewhere, average prices in 2016 are forecast to rise by 1.4 per cent in Manitoba, 1.1 per cent in Quebec, 1.4 per cent in New Brunswick, and 0.2 per cent in Nova Scotia. Reflecting recent housing market strength in Prince Edward Island, its average price is forecast to advance by 4.5 per cent in 2016.

The forecast for Alberta’s average price has been revised upward and is now projected to eke out a small gain (+0.6 per cent) this year as the province’s supply of listings continues to be drawn down by sales activity. By contrast, average price is expected to ease in Saskatchewan (-1.4 per cent) and record a marked decline in Newfoundland & Labrador (-8.0 per cent).

In 2017, national sales are forecast to number 537,500 units, which is virtually unchanged (+0.2 per cent) from the forecast for sales this year. Activity in B.C. and Ontario is anticipated to remain strong but unable to match records set this year due to a combination of deteriorating affordability and a lack of supply.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence should begin to strengthen and begin drawing homebuyers off the sidelines in Alberta and Saskatchewan as oil prices improve and their economic prospects strengthen. This should contribute to a modest rebound in sales activity for these provinces in 2017.

British Columbia is projected to post an annual decline of 2.3 per cent in home sales in 2017, while annual sales in Ontario are forecast to edge back by 0.6 per cent in 2017.

By contrast, sales activity is forecast to continue rising in Manitoba, Quebec and Nova Scotia next year, reflecting further anticipated economic improvement in these provinces. Meanwhile, sales in Prince Edward Island are expected to remain near on par with record levels forecast for 2016, as the province’s economy continues to benefit from a lower Canadian dollar.

The national average price is forecast to remain stable (+0.1 per cent or +$400) to $491,100 next year, with modest price gains near or below inflation in most provinces.

Slower national average price growth in 2017 primarily reflects the effect of a projected slowdown in sales activity in British Columbia and Ontario. In these two provinces, luxury sales activity is anticipated to recede from current record levels, resulting in a decline in their share of total sales activity. An ample supply of listings relative to demand will continue to keep price gains in check in other provinces, although inventories have begun to shrink in provinces where supply had been elevated in recent years.

About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

SOURCE Canadian Real Estate Association
For further information: Pierre Leduc, Media Relations, The Canadian Real Estate Association, Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460, E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Canadian home sales drop in May following April’s record

Canadian Real Estate AssociationAccording to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales dropped in May 2016 after having set an all-time monthly record in April.

Highlights:

  • National home sales dropped 2.8% from April to May.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 9.6% compared to May 2015.
  • The number of newly listed homes fell 3.2% from April to May.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 12.5% year-over-year in May.
  • The national average sale price climbed 13.2% in May from one year ago; net of Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver, it advanced 9.1% year-over-year.
  • The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 2.8 percent month-over-month in May 2016 after having broken all previous monthly sales records in April.

Sales activity dropped in May from the previous month in about 70 percent of all markets, led by those in British Columbia and Ontario where the number of homes listed for sale has fallen to multi-year or all-time lows.

“National sales activity is still strong, even after coming off the record levels of the past couple of months,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “But, there are housing markets where sales continue to reflect a cautious mood among homebuyers and uncertainty about the local economy,” he added. “All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“Many of the housing markets in BC and Ontario that led the monthly decline in national sales are also places where months of inventory have fallen to all-time lows,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “This suggests a lack of supply may be starting to rein in sales amid a continuation of strong housing demand.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 9.6 percent year-over-year in May 2016 and stood 15.1 percent above the 10-year average for the month of May.

The number of newly listed homes fell by 3.2 percent in May 2016 compared to April. New supply was down in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by the Fraser Valley, Victoria, Edmonton, Montreal and Quebec City.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio edged up to 64.8 percent in May 2016 – the ratio’s tightest reading since October 2009. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in about half of all local housing markets in May, virtually all of which are located in British Columbia, in addition to housing markets in and around Toronto and across Southwestern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2016, which is unchanged from April’s reading and the lowest level in more than six years. Months of inventory have been trending lower since early 2015, reflecting increasingly tighter housing markets in B.C. and Ontario. It currently sits at or below two months in a growing number of local markets in British Columbia, the GTA and environs and in Southwestern Ontario.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 12.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in May 2016, the biggest gain since February 2007.

For the fourth consecutive month, year-over-year price growth accelerated for all Benchmark property types tracked by the index.

Two-storey single family home prices continued to post the biggest year-over-year gain (+14.7 percent), followed by one storey single family homes (+12.7 percent), townhouse/row units (+11.6 percent), and apartment units (+8.6 percent).

While 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI posted year-over-year price gains in May, price growth among housing markets continues to vary widely.

Greater Vancouver (+29.7 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+31.7 percent) posted the largest gains, followed by Greater Toronto (+15.0 percent), Victoria (+13.9 percent), and Vancouver Island (+9.5 percent). By contrast, prices fell by -3.9 percent and -2.3 percent in Calgary and Saskatoon respectively.

Year-over-year price growth advanced further into positive territory in Regina (+3.4 percent) and strengthened further in Ottawa (+1.3 percent) and Greater Montreal (+1.9 percent). Home prices in Greater Moncton recorded their tenth consecutive year-over-year gain, rising 8.2 percent from where they stood one year earlier.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because average price is prone to being distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in May 2016 was $509,460, up 13.2 percent on a year-over-year basis.

If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average price is a more modest $375,532 and the year-over-year gain is trimmed to 9.1 percent.

Even then, this reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and in British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada. The average price for Canada net of sales in British Columbia and Ontario in May 2016 was down 0.7 percent year-over-year to $310,007.

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

SOURCE Canadian Real Estate Association
For further information: Pierre Leduc, Media Relations, The Canadian Real Estate Association, Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460, E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Mortgage Professionals Canada 2016 Spring Survey

Mortgage Professionals Canada logoNext generation of homeowners cautiously optimistic about economy and housing market, economic confidence main driver for purchasing decision

Mortgage Professionals Canada releases Spring Survey that provides a unique portrait of Canadians under the age of 40 who don’t currently own a home but expect to own in the future

Little has been reported about the group of Canadians just outside the housing market, sitting on the sidelines, thinking about buying or remaining renters. In this new Spring Survey, The Next Generation of Homebuyers, Mortgage Professionals Canada steps into the future to look at what these perspective homebuyers are thinking when it comes to investing in a home.

The report segments Next Gens into three categories based on their purchase time horizon: Distant Buyers looking to purchase beyond the next five years who may be less informed about the housing market conditions and the process involved in purchasing and financing a property; Mid-term Buyers looking to purchase in one to five years; and Imminent Buyers who are looking to purchase in the next year.

The majority of Next Gens feel that Canadian real estate is a good long-term investment and 72 per cent view having a mortgage as good debt. They have other debt to consider, however, before they’re ready to purchase. Young Canadians today are carrying heavier student loans than any previous generation. They also want to continue saving for a down payment or are waiting for important milestones in their lives like a promotion or marriage. These factors together with the high costs of homeownership are causing a majority of Next Gens to delay their purchase to sometime in the next five years.

“We found that there is a strong interest in homeownership among Next Generation Homebuyers but they are waiting until they feel financially secure,” said Paul Taylor, President and CEO of Mortgage Professionals Canada. “They are cautious as they save for the future. In the next few years, we expect to see an influx of first-time buyers who know exactly what they want from their first home.”

With average household incomes of $75,000 and average savings of $27,000, 61 per cent of Next Gens expect to make a down payment of less than 20 per cent of the purchase price of their home. Increasingly more self-reliant, this group is also expecting to front their down payments themselves, with 73 per cent relying on their own personal savings and only 36 per cent relying on gifts or loans from family.

Despite the increased price, Next Gens are hoping their first homes will be a low-rise dwelling (80 per cent), over a condominium (18 per cent). The majority are looking for detached homes (59 per cent), while 13 per cent are pursuing a townhouse or eight per cent a semi-detached home. Next Gens living in Ontario and Western Canada are slightly more likely to opt for a condo (19 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively) compared to Atlantic Canada (10 per cent).

“The economy and the housing market interact strongly together. Future homebuying activity will be highly influenced by the economic conditions that exist, including the job situation and mortgage interest rates, as well as the rules associated with mortgage lending,” said Will Dunning, Chief Economist, Mortgage Professionals Canada. “Evolving personal situations will be paramount in those purchase decisions.”

Overall, when Next Gens do enter the housing market, 93 per cent will be looking for a mortgage. While Next Gens as a whole either aren’t too sure of the type of mortgage to expect (30 per cent) or are planning on a combination mortgage (30 per cent), those looking to purchase in the next year are planning for either a fixed-rate (32 per cent) or combination (33 per cent) mortgage, with a median interest rate expectation of 3%. Nearly two thirds of imminent buyers (61 per cent) expect an amortization of 25 years, while 71 per cent expect to pay off their mortgage in less than 25 years.

For a full copy of The Next Generation of Homebuyers, click here.

About Mortgage Professionals Canada
Mortgage Professionals Canada (formerly CAAMP) is Canada’s national mortgage broker channel association representing more than 11,000 members from coast to coast. We recognize that Canadians need and deserve more. We believe in competition as it produces better options and demands ever-improving service and products. We believe in choice as it benefits Canadians and delivers an environment of opportunity. We believe in professionalism as it demonstrates commitment, trust and excellence. The mortgage broker channel is a critical and valuable profession. It creates possibility, fuels the economy and provides Canadians with choice when making among the most important financial decisions of their lives.
SOURCE Mortgage Professionals Canada

For further information: Paul Taylor, President and CEO, Mortgage Professionals Canada, O: 416-644-5465 / C: 905-334-1165, ptaylor@MortgageProsCan.ca; Karolina Olechnowicz, Senior Consultant, Media Profile, O: 416-342-1822, karolina.olechnowicz@mediaprofile.com

CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast

Canadian Real Estate Association

Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations for 2016 and extended it to include 2017.

CREA’s recent forecasts anticipated that housing activity would rebalance in 2016, with cooling activity and smaller price gains in British Columbia and Ontario, resulting in slower national price growth. However, many of the defining themes among Canadian housing markets last year have persisted, and in some cases intensified, in early 2016. Interest rate are now also widely expected to remain low for longer, with administered lending rates beginning to rise no earlier than the second half of 2017.

Canadian resale housing market trends this year are expected to resemble those apparent in 2015, with very tight supply leading to strong price gains in British Columbia and Ontario – particularly in the Lower Mainland and in and around the Greater Toronto Area. Price gains in these regions are expected to continue to stand in sharp contrast to moderate price declines among housing markets whose prospects are closely tied to oil and other natural resource prices. In line with the prevailing forecast for stronger Canadian economic growth beginning in the second half of 2016, Canadian home sales activity is now expected to rebalance in 2017.

Nationally, sales activity is forecast to rise by one per cent to 511,400 units in 2016. The annual increase continues to reflect significant regional variations in housing market trends (Chart A).

British Columbia is again forecast to post the largest annual increase in activity (+11.8 per cent), with Alberta expected the record the largest annual sales decline (-18.7 per cent). A lack of supply is expected to hold activity in check in Ontario in 2016 (+0.3 per cent) despite the continuation of very strong demand.

Elsewhere, modest sales gains in Manitoba (+3.4 per cent), Quebec (+3.4 per cent), New Brunswick (+1.2 per cent), Nova Scotia (+1.1 per cent) and Prince Edward Island (+3.3 per cent) are forecast for 2016, reflecting expected improvements in these province’s economic prospects.

By contrast, sales activity in 2016 is forecast to ease in Saskatchewan Newfoundland and Labrador, two of Canada’s major oil producing provinces, by 3.7 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively.

With prices continuing to push higher in British Columbia and Ontario and sales in these expensive real estate markets hitting record highs, CREA’s forecast for national average price has been revised upward to $478,100 in 2016, representing an annual increase of eight per cent.

British Columbia is forecast to be the only province where average home prices rise materially faster (+10.0 per cent) than the national average, reflecting an increasing proportion of sales above $1 million. The rise in Ontario’s average price (+8.2 per cent) is forecast to be roughly in line with the national increase.

Elsewhere, average prices in 2016 are forecast to rise by 2.1 per cent in Manitoba, 1.6 per cent in Quebec, and 1.1 per cent in both Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.

Average prices are forecast recede in Alberta (-2.5 per cent), Saskatchewan (-2.4 per cent), New Brunswick (-0.4 per cent) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-1.4 per cent).

In 2017, national sales are forecast to number 513,400 units. This is little changed (+0.4 per cent) from forecast levels for 2016, as activity in B.C. and Ontario comes off the boil due to deteriorating affordability while confidence begins to recover in provinces hardest hit by weak prices for oil and other natural resources.

Consumer confidence is anticipated to strengthen and begin drawing homebuyers off the sidelines in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador as their economic prospects improve. This is anticipated to contribute to a modest rebound in sales activity in these provinces in 2017.

British Columbia is the only province forecast to post an annual decline in home sales in 2017, reflecting a combination of a growing shortage of single family homes available for sale and deteriorating affordability. Even so, activity is expected to continue trending near record levels. Ontario is forecast to see sales level off in 2017.

Sales activity is forecast to continue to push higher in Manitoba, Quebec, and Nova Scotia in 2017, reflecting the prevailing forecast for improving economic prospects in these provinces. Sales in Prince Edward Island are also forecast to improve as the province continues to benefit from a lower Canadian dollar.

The national average price is forecast to edge higher by 1.1 per cent to $482,500 in 2017, with modest price gains near or below inflation among provinces.

Slower national average price growth in 2017 reflects weaker price gains in British Columbia and Ontario. Price trends in these provinces reflect an anticipated slowdown in luxury sales activity, a continuing supply shortage of relatively more affordable low rise family homes and an anticipated increase in relatively more affordable condo unit sales as a proportion of total sales activity. In other provinces, an ample supply of listings relative to demand will continue to keep price gains in check.

About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

SOURCE Canadian Real Estate Association
For further information: Pierre Leduc, Media Relations, The Canadian Real Estate Association, Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460, E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

CREA Forecasting 8% Price Increase in Ontario

Canadian Real Estate Association

Canadian Real Estate Association

I think it is only fair to point out that the real estate forecast below, was done by the CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) who have a vested interest in people believing house prices are still going up, and therefore a good investment. It is only a forecast based on the market’s past behaviour and what the CREA hopes will happen. Home prices are actually on the decline in many parts of Canada and interest rates have started climbing.

CREA 2016 Market Forecast

Press Release – Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are forecast to see average home prices decline by 2.5 per cent, 1.2 per cent and one per cent respectively in 2016, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The downturn in the oil industry may be one of the major reasons for the decline.

British Columbia will be the only province this year where average home prices rise faster (+11.5 per cent) than the national average. The rise in Ontario’s average price (+8.0 per cent) is forecast to be roughly in line with the national increase. CREA says that low interest rates will assist sales but that the federal government’s recent reforms to mortgage lending rules will have a negative effect beyond its intended targets in the Vancouver and Toronto areas. New mortgage rules will also likely reduce sales activity in Calgary once they take effect early next year.
The forecast for national sales in 2015 has been revised higher, reflecting stronger than anticipated activity in B.C. and Ontario. National sales are now projected to rise by five per cent marking the second strongest year on record for home sales in Canada.
British Columbia is projected to post the largest annual increase in sales activity in 2015 (+21.4 per cent), while home sales in Ontario are projected to rise by 9.3 per cent. The increase would in all likelihood be higher were it not for a shortage of low rise homes available for purchase in and around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
Sales in Quebec and New Brunswick are forecast to rise by 4.8 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively while activity in Prince Edward Island, having benefitted from the lower Canadian dollar, is expected to be up 18.8 per cent from 2014 levels.
CREA is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 111,000 REALTORS® working through 90 real estate Boards and Associations.